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Fantasy baseball: Beware of prospects

Batter up! But don't bank on blue chippers right out of the gate.

By Posted byStephen Hart

Published:
If you’re part of a fantasy league where you can store prized rookies on a deep bench, that’s fine. But if your aim is to inject them into your starting lineup, be prepared for the growing pains.

As a longtime fantasy sports player (for those readers of a different generation, I teamed with my buddy Kevin Flood on the Staten Island Advance’s “Clueless Joe” column), I’m as guilty as anyone with being enamored by blue-chip baseball prospects.

Except when it comes to drafting them.

First off, you have to realize that the by-the-book rookies — those who have never made an appearance in the Majors — likely won’t be called up for the first month of the season as MLB owners and GMs don’t want their service clock running right away.

But even for those prospects who got the call to “go north” (or east or west, for those in the Cactus League) at the start of the campaign, most youngsters take time to adjust — not just to a higher level of competition but things like cross-country travel and the swarm of media. Dealing with such new experiences combined with playing against the adults can take its toll.

That certainly appears the case with Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in MLB. The son of former All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday, the 20-year-old infielder and 2022 first-round draft pick enters play on April 20 with an .037 batting average (1 for 27) with one RBI. Rangers outfielder Evan Carter, another blue-chipper, has done slightly better, with a .188 average, two HR and six RBI. Jackson Chourio of the Brewers has gotten the chance to play daily since Opening Day; while he sports just a .235 average, he does have four homers, 13 RBI and four steals.

While these prospects and others have gotten off to slow starts, it’s not to say they won’t eventually ride the learning curve. Still, finding the groove can be hard not only for rookies but for touted players who have been in the Majors for two or three years. That includes the likes of Lane Thomas (Nats), Oneil Cruz (Pirates) and Byron Buxton (Twins).

This column has focused exclusively on batters. Of course, first-year pitchers are also susceptible to getting out of the gate lethargically. But they are more likely to have the element of surprise in their favor, plus managers tend to be more restrictive with the appearances of young hurlers.

When it comes to investing in batters, my advice is to go with undervalued guys who have shown steady improvement over their first few MLB seasons, and who are ready for breakout seasons. Here are some names to keep in mind: Amed Rosario (MI/OF, Rays); Josh Naylor (1B, Guardians); Triston Casas (1B, Red Sox); Will Smith (C, Dodgers); Willy Adames (SS, Brewers); and Bryan De La Cruz (OF, Marlins).

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